Modeling the diffusion of residential photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles: A comprehensive scenario-based analysis

In the context of significant transformations in the global energy and automotive sectors, distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming prominent, propelled by initiatives aimed at decreasing CO₂ emissions. Extensive EV adoption necessitates a confluence of financial incentives, charging infrastructure, and mobility rules; nonetheless, substantial obstacles persist, including inadequate consumer awareness and elevated costs compared to traditional vehicles. Confronting these difficulties requires meticulous policy and regulatory formulation. This research develops a comprehensive system dynamics model that concurrently addresses EV adoption, photovoltaic (PV) installation, and energy market fluctuations, explicitly integrating critical policy instruments such as CO₂ taxes, purchase incentives, net metering, and mobility constraints. In contrast to other methodologies that assess these elements independently, the model offers an integrated examination of their collective effects under uncertainty. Simulations executed in Python assess more than 1000 scenarios, altering photovoltaic costs, electric vehicle incentives, carbon taxes, and transportation regulations. Findings for Colombia indicate that, given conducive economic and legislative circumstances, the adoption of home photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles can significantly increase, thereby diminishing CO₂ emissions and hastening the shift towards the electrification of transportation.