Comparación de pronósticos para la dinámica del turismo en Medellín, Colombia

Translated title of the contribution: Comparing forecasts for tourism dynamics in Medellín, Colombia

Marisol Valencia, Juan Vanegas, Juan Correa, Jorge Restrepo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


Tourism is a topic of interest to many economies around the world, but it has received limited attention in Colombia. Knowing the periods of larger tourist inflows is important for predicting coverage in services for tourists. In this paper, we compare the estimation between classical and Bayesian regression in order to choose the best alternative to predict the number of tourist arrivals to Medellin. We also identify the most significant variables affecting the influx of tourists and the models providing better fit to the associated dynamics. According to our results, the Bayesian approach shows better estimates than the classic one. In addition, the variable month is significant to explain the demands for both Colombians and foreigners. The periods with the highest incidence of visits to the city are December-January and June-July, a pattern that repeats itself every year, which is crucial for planning hotel resources.

Translated title of the contributionComparing forecasts for tourism dynamics in Medellín, Colombia
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)199-230
Number of pages32
JournalLecturas de Economia
Issue number86
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Universidad de Antioquia. All rights reserved.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Business,Management and Accounting
  • Finance
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty


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