Assessing the speed, extent, and impact of the diffusion of solar PV

Jose Morcillo, Monica Castaneda, Maritza Jímenez, Sebastián Zapata*, Isaac Dyner, Andres J. Aristizabal

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


Electricity markets are changing towards increases in renewable sources. This technology transformation, as any other, brings opportunities and challenges to the industry. In electricity, the technology transformation is a complex process that impacts different stakeholders in many dimensions. This paper assesses the diffusion of rooftop-solar technology in electricity markets in terms of its extent, speed, and effects, considering prices and services. The analysis includes a comparison of technology transformation in the electricity sector and its effects on stakeholders in the United Kingdom, Colombia, and Brazil. The paper concludes, through a model-based framework, that Photovoltaic diffusion converges in penetrating up to 25%–30% of the residential sector regardless of a country's initial market conditions, industrialization level and solar radiation levels. Additionally, electricity prices for those households that do not use PVs will increase by about 20% by 2040. Finally, the cost recovery of utilities may be affected, though in some cases this may be more severe than in others.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)269-281
Number of pages13
JournalEnergy Reports
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Energy


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