ABC‑GOALScl score predicts admission to the intensive care unit and mortality of COVID‑19 patients over 60 years of age

María Elena Camacho Moll, Zayra Ramirez-Daher, Brenda Leticia Escobedo Guajardo, Julio Cesar Davila Valero, Brenda Ludmila Rodríguez de la Garza, Mario Bermúdez de León

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2 Citations (Scopus)


Background: One of the risk factors for getting seriously ill from COVID-19 and reaching high mortality rates is older age. Older age is also associated with comorbidities, which are risk factors for severe COVID-19 infection. Among the tools that have been evaluated to predict intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality is ABC-GOALScl. Aim: In the present study we validated the utility of ABC-GOALScl to predict in-hospital mortality in subjects over 60 years of age who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus at the moment of admission with the purpose of optimizing sanitary resources and offering personalized treatment for these patients. Methods: This was an observational, descriptive, transversal, non-interventional and retrospective study of subjects (≥ 60 years of age), hospitalized due to COVID-19 infection at a general hospital in northeastern Mexico. A logistical regression model was used for data analysis. Results: Two hundred forty-three subjects were included in the study, whom 145 (59.7%) passed away, while 98 (40.3%) were discharged. Average age was 71, and 57.6% were male. The prediction model ABC-GOALScl included sex, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, dyspnea, arterial pressure, respiratory frequency, SpFi coefficient (Saturation of oxygen/Fraction of inspired oxygen ratio), serum levels of glucose, albumin, and lactate dehydrogenase; all were measured at the moment of admission. The area under the curve for the scale with respect to the variable of discharge due to death was 0.73 (IC 95% = 0.662—0.792). Conclusion: The ABC-GOALScl scale to predict ICU admission in COVID-19 patients is also useful to predict in-hospital death in COVID-19 patients ≥ 60 years old.

Original languageEnglish
Article number138
Pages (from-to)1
Number of pages7
JournalBMC Geriatrics
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Authors thank Dr. Jose Luis Acosta Rodríguez, Hospital Director from Zone General Hospital No. 4 at Mexican Social Security Institute, whose support made this study possible.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).


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